Research involving more than 40,000 Australian students highlights links between teaching support, students’ intentions to complete school and their eventual Year 12 outcomes.
What students think about their future in Year 10 may provide an important insight into whether they will ultimately complete school, according to new Australian research.
UNSW researchers Rebecca Collie, Andrew Martin, Alison Le and Anaïd Flesken analysed data from 40,815 secondary students, identifying five distinct patterns in students’ intentions around completing school, attending university and undertaking VET. The study also examined whether students’ perceptions of teaching support in Year 9 were associated with the intentions they reported in Year 10 and their school completion outcomes in Year 12.
The study, Education intention profiles: Perceived teaching support as a predictor and associations with school completion, was published in Contemporary Educational Psychology.
Five common Year 10 pathways
The research identified five broadly similar patterns in students’ plans for completing school and what they might do afterwards:
- University-bound: Strong intentions to complete school and attend university (40–57 per cent of students).
- VET-focused: Strong intentions to complete school and pursue vocational education and training (8 per cent).
- School-focused but undecided: Strong intentions to complete school, but less certainty about whether to pursue university or VET (18–22 per cent).
- Uncertain about school, leaning towards VET: Moderate intentions overall, with somewhat stronger interest in VET and less certainty about completing school (10–17 per cent).
- Unlikely to complete school, leaning towards VET: Very low intentions to complete school or attend university, alongside moderate VET intentions (10–12 per cent).
The distinction is important for schools. Students interested in VET are not necessarily students who intend to leave school early. Students in the VET-focused group had strong intentions to both complete school and pursue a vocational pathway.
Teaching support linked to stronger intentions
One of the study’s key findings was the relationship between perceived teaching support and students’ intentions.
Across rural, regional and city locations, higher levels of perceived teaching support predicted membership of the three groups characterised by strong intentions to complete school. This included students planning to pursue either university or VET.
The researchers argue that teaching support may help students understand challenging content, receive personalised guidance and experience a positive learning environment, all of which may contribute to stronger academic intentions.
For schools, the finding points to the potential value of looking beyond academic performance or attendance when considering students who may be at risk of disengaging.
Understanding what students intend to do, and how confident they are about completing school, could provide an earlier opportunity to identify those who need additional support.
Intentions matter
The different intention patterns were also associated with markedly different Year 12 completion rates.
Across all locations, students who strongly intended to complete school and attend university had the highest completion rates, ranging from 78 to 88 per cent. At the other end of the scale, completion rates for students with low school completion and university intentions ranged from 22 to 36 per cent.
Students who were uncertain about completing school but leaning towards VET had completion rates of between 42 and 54 per cent.
The researchers suggest the findings may point to different support needs among the groups. Students already intending to complete school may benefit from support that sustains those intentions, while undecided students may need greater knowledge of university and VET opportunities. For students with lower completion intentions, strategies to strengthen their intention to finish school may be particularly important
How teachers can help students stay on track
For school leaders and teachers, the findings suggest several areas worth considering:
- Make the pathway beyond school visible. Give students clear information about university, VET courses, occupations and the qualifications they require, helping them understand how staying at school connects with their future goals.
- Connect learning with students’ goals. Personalised guidance, clear explanations and a positive learning environment may help strengthen students’ engagement and intentions to complete school.
- Don’t assume VET means leaving school early. Help students understand that VET and school completion can work together, including through VET options available while students remain enrolled.
- Give undecided students more information. Students who intend to finish school but are uncertain about university or VET may benefit from opportunities to explore both pathways and understand how they connect.
- Identify uncertainty early. Students with weaker completion intentions may need particular support to strengthen their intention to complete school.
- Build connections with the world beyond school. Work experience and industry connections can help students understand different career pathways and the qualifications they require.
- Consider access to pathways. For rural and regional students, ensuring they know about university supports and have access to VET and other pathway options is particularly important.
Supporting different pathways
The research also highlights differences between locations. School completion was generally highest among city students, followed by regional and rural students.
Teaching support had a particularly strong relationship with university-oriented intentions among rural students. The researchers suggest this may have implications for efforts to strengthen university intentions in rural communities, alongside addressing practical issues of accessibility.
For schools, the broader message is that pathway planning and student engagement are closely connected.
Helping students see a future beyond school does not mean steering them towards a particular destination. Rather, the research suggests that students may be better positioned to stay engaged when they can see viable pathways ahead and experience strong support in their learning.
The researchers caution that the study demonstrates associations rather than causation. It cannot establish that teaching support itself causes stronger completion intentions.
