Australia could need capacity for an additional 87,700 Independent school students by 2035, equivalent to 191 schools or campuses, according to new national research.
Independent Schools Australia’s (ISA) new report, Independent Schooling 2026: Enrolment Trends, Characteristics and Projections, projects around 87,700 additional Independent school students by 2035.
Based on the current average school size, this represents the equivalent of 191 schools or campuses. Around nine in 10 of those additional places are projected to be needed in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.
The report also projects that Independent schooling could become Australia’s second-largest school sector by enrolments from 2027.
Independent Schools Australia CEO Graham Catt said the figures highlighted the need for governments to plan for changing enrolment patterns.
“Parents are choosing. Policy settings need to catch up,” Mr Catt said.
“The data says that almost 88,000 students’ families will choose an Independent school over the next decade, and governments need to start planning for those children now. A school place doesn’t appear overnight. It needs classrooms, teachers, land and long-term planning.”
Independent schools enrolled 767,712 students in 2025, reaching a record 18.5 per cent share of Australian school enrolments. Enrolments grew by 3 per cent during the year, compared with overall student growth of 0.7 per cent.
Over the past five years, Independent school enrolments have grown by an average of 3.5 per cent a year, compared with 0.8 per cent across Australian schooling overall.
Mr Catt said infrastructure planning needed to reflect where students were expected to attend school.
“The question is whether our education policy and infrastructure planning reflects where students are actually going to school.”
Growth across fee levels and regions
The report identifies enrolment growth across a range of Independent schools, including those with lower average fees.
Schools with average annual fees below $8,000 account for 44 per cent of Independent enrolments but 65 per cent of the sector’s enrolment growth since 2020.
Schools charging $20,000 or more account for 22 per cent of enrolments but 10 per cent of growth over the same period.
Regional and remote areas accounted for about 22 per cent of Independent school enrolment growth over the past five years.
Mr Catt said future planning needed to recognise demand across all three school sectors.
“Planning for the children who will actually arrive at school gates in the future shouldn’t be derailed by sectoral battles.”
“Properly resourcing public schools matters. So does supporting those who choose a non-government school. Australia needs both, and governments should plan accordingly.”
“Parents are choosing. Families are contributing. Policy should reflect reality.”
The 191-school figure is a national planning equivalent, based on the current average Independent school campus size of 459 students and the assumption that existing schools are at capacity. In practice, future demand could be met through a combination of new schools, new campuses and expansion of existing schools.
Source: Independent Schools Australia, Independent Schooling 2026: Enrolment Trends, Characteristics and Projections.
Read the full report.